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Mateusz Morawiecki zakochał się w budżecie

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Mateusz Morawiecki zakochał się w budżecie

lipiec 16, 2016      In aktualnosci 16 348 Comments

Miłość jest ślepa – skomentował Marek Borowski na antenie TOK FM słowa Mateusza Morawieckiego, iż zakochał się w budżecie na 2017 r. Jak stwierdził senator, wicepremier uznał za sukces to, że udało się domknąć budżet w granicach 3% deficytu, mimo znacznego zwiększenia wydatków. Każde wydatki można jednak domknąć deficytem 3%, jeżeli się na odpowiednim poziomie zaplanuje dochody. A one są nie tyle zaplanowane, ile wymarzone, choć – jak przyznał senator – jakaś szansa, że zostaną zrealizowane, jest.
M. Borowski zwrócił uwagę, że dyskusja nad deficytem i budżetem odsuwa w cień kwestię tempa wzrostu gospodarczego. – Na 2017 r. zakłada się 3,6%, a w tym roku założenie było 3,8%, potem zredukowane do 3,4%. Niektórzy ekonomiści mówią, że to będzie poniżej 3% średniorocznie. To byłaby klęska wizerunkowa PiS-u i premiera Morawieckiego. W Strategii Odpowiedzialnego Rozwoju, podstawowym dokumencie, nad którym właśnie skończyły się konsultacje, średnioroczne tempo rozwoju zostało zaplanowane w latach 2016-2020 na 4%. Osiągnięcie tego jest już raczej niemożliwe, bo w kolejnych 3 latach to tempo musiałoby wynieść średnio 4,5%. Tymczasem inwestycje są niższe niż były – podkreślił senator.
– Logika i roztropność mówi, że najpierw trzeba pieniądze zebrać, a potem je wydać. Rząd ze względów politycznych musiał wydać w tym roku 17 mld zł na program 500+ i gorączkowo zbiera 23 mld zł na ten cel na 2017 rok. W tym roku były wpływu ze sprzedaży częstotliwości – 9 mld zł i dodatkowe wpływy z NBP – 8 mld zł. W przyszłym roku to jest bardzo napięte. Okazało się też, że impuls popytowy programu 500+ nie jest taki silny jak się spodziewano – mówił senator.
Za niepokojące uznał Marek Borowski odwrócenie trendu spadku deficytu budżetowego. – Za rządów PO on najpierw rósł, nawet do 7-8% podczas kryzysu, kiedy rząd bronił się przed wzrostem bezrobocia poprzez zwiększanie wydatków. Później jednak przyjęto program, który dość gwałtownie zmniejszył ten deficyt do 2,6% PKB. Teraz ten trend się odwraca mimo spokojnych czasów. Ekonomiści mówią, że rząd idzie po bandzie. W przyszłym roku jeszcze jakimiś manewrami się to domknie, ale w kolejnym – jeśli obniżony zostanie wiek emerytalny – może się okazać, że już się nie domyka i albo trzeba będzie ciąć inne wydatki, albo przekraczać deficyt.
Senator zwrócił uwagę, że z wystąpienia wicepremiera Morawieckiego nie dowiedzieliśmy się niczego o wnętrzu budżetu. – Pan premier mówi: kolejnymi bardzo dużymi wydatkami w przyszłym roku są rekordowe wydatki na naukę. Łącznie subwencje, dodatki i dotacje na naukę to 8,6 mld zł, ponieważ chcemy, żeby przestawić gospodarkę na tory innowacyjne. To dobrze brzmi. Tymczasem w 2016 r. wydatki na naukę wynosiły 7,7 mld zł, czyli 0,4% PKB. A 8,6 mld zł w 2017 r. to też 0,4% PKB. Różnica jest w setnych części procenta – 0,41 do 0,44. Podaje się to w „rekordowym sosie”, rzekomo coś się wielkiego dzieje, a nic się nie dzieje. Strategia Odpowiedzialnego Rozwoju przewiduje wzrost tych wydatków do 2% PKB. W tym tempie za 20 lat tego nie osiągniemy.
Zacytował też fragment wystąpienia M.Morawieckiego dotyczący oświaty. „Utrzymujemy również faktyczny wzrost subwencji na oświatę w stosunku do liczby nauczycieli i liczby uczniów o 1,6 mld zł. Gdyby policzyć to proporcjonalnie do przysługującej subwencji względem liczby pracujących nauczycieli, co przekłada się na liczbę dzieci, to ze względu na niekorzystne dla Polski trendy demograficzne porównując „jabłka z jabłkami” można powiedzieć, że ten wzrost będzie na poziomie 1,6 mld zł.” – Konia z rzędem temu, kto z tego wywnioskuje, czy jest wzrost, czy nie.
Senator uznał za słuszne skupienie się na wyciąganiu VAT-u, który w jakiejś mierze był zaniedbany, ale jako niepokojący ocenił projekt rozszerzenia gier hazardowych. – Premier wyjaśniał, że chodzi o to, by wyciągnąć więcej pieniędzy z tych gier. Ale chyba nie zna projektu ustawy, który rząd już przygotował i który mówi o tym, że salony jednorękich bandytów, które zostały zredukowane do kasyn, mają być w różnych miejscach, tyle tylko że prowadzone przez monopol państwowy. To mi się nie podoba. Nie jest to dobry sposób na pozyskiwanie pieniędzy.
Marek Borowski zwrócił uwagę na ironiczną wypowiedź wicepremiera na temat rządów PO-PSL, które zadłużyły kraj. – Pan premier był jednak w ekipie doradców Donalda Tuska, więc na jego miejscu bym stonował krytykę poprzedników, bo to nie wypada. Ale wszedł w buty polityczne.
Jak policzył senator, średnioroczne tempo narastania długu w ciągu 8 lat poprzednich rządów wynosiło rocznie 8 % (porównując „jabłka z jabłkami”, czyli to samo z tym samym) a za dwa lata 2016-2017 wynosi – też 8%. Nie można więc opowiadać, że my to robimy inaczej – podkreślił.
TOK FM – 21 października 2017
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